SuperCoach HQ
  • AFL SuperCoach
    • AFL Team >
      • Dave's Rave
      • Schon's Shout
      • Matt's Moves
      • Aaron's PODs
      • Shorty's Skippers
      • Thomas Frick
      • The Chief's Whack
      • SC On the Couch
    • SCHQ YouTube Page
    • The Utility >
      • Newsletter Sign-Up
      • Resources / Shop
      • Club by Club Reviews
    • Live Chat
  • Fantasy A-League
    • Justin's Analysis
    • Ben de Geest
    • Schon's Chant
    • Luke Hall
  • Fantasy Big Bash

Top 5 Break-Out Contenders for 2014

17/2/2014

8 Comments

 
The break-out player. It’s a mystery how it happens, but somewhere in-between the second and sixth years of a quality footballer’s life, they produce outstanding results and become a household name.

Is there a proven formula to say when and where this magical occasion will occur? No, but we can predict pretty accurately through a few numbers and factors.
The folks at Champion Data tell us that players traditionally peak and play their best footy between the ages of 23 - 27. So we need someone right at the start or even before of this scale, someone old enough to drink in the ‘States but not old enough to start worrying about turning 30.
The other major factors apart from age are:
  •  New Coach: new ideas, a new game plan and a new lease on life
  •  New Role: players can be restricted in certain roles. Some birds are too good to be caged, let them play on the wing and gathered uncontested possessions.
  •  New Club: see new coach, a new environment is often the only thing required for massive change.
  •  Natural Progression: Some players just take time to develop, and there’s nothing wrong with that. Often the hardest to pick however.
Shane Savage SupercoachPhoto: Getty Images
David Swallow - Gold Coast - DEF/MID - $429k
Age: 21 / Factors: New Role, Natural Progression
The former number one has been tagging for the past season and playing quite defensively, but this year we’ll see a change, with a less restrictive midfield role on the cards, as seen in the NAB Challenge. Entering his fourth season, it’s his time to finally make an impact and improve on that high 70s average. Well worth the gamble, especially in defence.

Shane Savage - St.Kilda - MID - $341k

Age: 23 / Factors: New Club, New Coach
It’s understandable that Savage wanted out of the Hawks after last season, he averaged 93 SC points per game from Rounds 16-20, but was then put into the green vest until finals and missed September action. That’s frustrating, but at the Saints, he’s straight into their best 22. Unfortunately there’s no DPP for SS, but he’s got all the tools and could be a steal at less than #350k.

Dylan Shiel SuperCoachPhoto: Getty Images
Josh Caddy - Geelong - MID/FWD - $325k
Age: 21 / Factors: New Role
Big JC’s influence was massively curbed last season by the curse of the green vest. When he escaped it though, he showed plenty, averaging 93 across a three-game stretch in the middle of the year. Dual Position status certainly helps his cause, and injuries to Allen Christensen and Steven Motlop mean Caddy is no longer in sub calculations and should secure himself a place the Cats’ midfield. He spent too much time forward last year, but I think in 2014 we’ll see that change.

Dylan Shiel - GWS - MID - $407k
Age: 21 / Factors: Natural Progression
Massive fan of the WindShield from Western Sydney, who tore it up in the junior competitions. He’s always in the guts and was second at the Giants in 2013 for clearances. 2014 will be Shiel’s third in the AFL and more than anything, the Giants need him to rapidly improve for them to become competitive. Unlike at a Collingwood, Fremantle or Sydney, there aren’t a heap of midfielders who could potentially steal points off him either. He went over 90 seven times last year, and that’s only going to improve.

Jack Trengove - Melbourne - MID - $404k
Age: 22 / Factors: New Coach, New Role
Jack Trengove’s got it. The former number two pick averaged 88 in his second year, that’s an elite achievement. But then he was weighed down by a mammoth task, the Melbourne captaincy. Paul Roos is in though, and his high possession game is perfect for Nathan Jones, Bernie Vince and Jack Trengove. The new role listed above is simply that he’s been released from the captaincy - finally he can be selfish again and rack up large numbers without worrying about off-field issues.

Unlucky; Mitch Grigg (ADE), Ryan Lester (BRI), Lachie Neale (FRE), Tom Scully (GWS), Rohan Bail (MEL), Matthew Lobbe (PA), Jared Polec (PA), Reece Conca (RIC), Sharrod Wellingham (WCE), Mitch Wallis (WB)

Are you choosing a Break-Out Contender?
  
pollcode.com free polls 
SuperCoach Group
Leave a Comment
8 Comments
Ross Curwen
18/2/2014 08:16:49 am

You forgot Michie & Tyson from Melbourne. They will both have breakout seasons baring injury.

Reply
Schon
18/2/2014 10:23:10 am

I think those two will both have very good seasons. However I didn't want to put them down as 'breaking-out' as neither have had a real crack at AFL yet, haven't had a chance to establish themselves.

Reply
RoOSTA link
18/2/2014 12:32:47 pm

Great post. Swallow, Caddy and Savage would be the top 3 IMO to keep an eye on. These players are further discussed in RMT on the SCHQ forum

RoOSTA

Reply
Aaron
11/3/2014 06:09:09 am

I'm looking for a defender instead of Webster. Got a feeling Ryan Harwood could be the way to go. Ended last year well, and started NAB challenger excellent. Possible breakout year.

Reply
Schon
11/3/2014 07:51:38 pm

Harwood and Lester are two genuine options from the Lions. Interesting to see what Leppitsch does with the running backs. Watch this space.

Reply
Aaron
11/3/2014 08:30:40 pm

I ended up taking Matt Broadbent at D4, Schon. Will average 80, so safer than Webster IMO and could lift his average. Should hold his price and score reasonably well at worse and is a tradable option during the year. If he raises that average well then he could be a great pick; in 0.82%

Phil
11/3/2014 02:54:21 pm

Don't think atley is due for a breakout? Surely he is ready now

Reply
Schon
11/3/2014 07:50:29 pm

Atley disappointed a lot last year. I think he'll improve again, but I don't know if it will be 'break-out' worthy.

Reply



Leave a Reply.

    Holidays to Europe
    An amateur football analyst, and an even more amateur footballer.
    Would love to hear your opinion. Go Swans!

    @supercoach_hq

    Archives

    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012
    August 2011
    July 2011
    June 2011
    May 2011
    April 2011
    March 2011
    February 2011

    RSS Feed


 Looking for something else?

Newsletter  |  Contact Us   |   About Us   |  Cheat-Sheets  | Footy Forum