After the success of last weeks post regarding the forwards - Rohan, JKH, Higgins, et al. - I decided to make this a regular thing. When an issue arises within my side, that I see as a somewhat common theme among SuperCoaches, I will 'put my thoughts onto paper' for you to read through and consider what you can do.
Last week I suggested that Higgins was scoring well enough to be suited at F6 and that Rohan or Impey should not be on your field and should be upgraded, possibly with a Thomas downgrade to free up cash. After one week that move seems a success with Impey and Rohan scoring poorly, Higgins scoring his first ton for 2014, Thomas scoring in the 50s and two options I was keen on to trade to Thomas - Crouch and Kelly - scored 80 and 70 respectively. Dylan Buckley was another I suggested but I also wrote not to play him on the field, and as I expected he didn't score great.
This week, I have decided to take a look at the rucks.
Problems
Where do I start? In a position where we only have two starters and two bench players, some teams would've had their entire rounds destroyed by the rucks. Nic Naitanui was subbed out for 27, Matthew Leuenberger subbed out for 0 with a knee injury, Dean Cox and Aaron Sandilands put out underwhelming numbers of 77 and 82 respectively. Then we had Tom Hickey and Shane Mumford as late withdrawals with minor injuries, which was no worries of course because Daniel Currie will back them up... Oh dear, then he is withdrawn as well. And the other common back-up in Tom Derickx scored 39 and was subbed out. To top all of that off, Ben McEvoy and Patrick Ryder have been absent for two weeks, Matthew Kreuzer is out for a few months and Todd Goldstein and Will Minson haven't been at their best. Please forgive me if I've missed a different ruck problem!
Where to from here?
Shane Mumford - Had minor surgery on his knee but is only listed as 1-2 weeks on the AFL injury list. Some people suggested he will only miss one because GWS have a 9 day break, but personally I don't think they'll risk him. Can keep OR trade; my focus for this article.
Nic Naitanui - Not listed on the injury list. He is terribly out of form but Simpson is quoted on the AFL website saying that he will not be dropped. Sideways trade to Jacobs if you have 40k spare.
Matthew Leuenberger - Brisbane Lions website says he is out for 10-12. Trade.
Daniel Currie - 1 more game would've seen him rise in cash. After North's win I am genuinely worried he will take some time to get back in. Will find out more over coming weeks. Hold.
Tom Hickey - I knew as a Saints fan there was always a chance as soon as Hickey was tired or sore he'd be withdrawn to give Billy Longer game time. After being at the game and watching Longer first hand, he'll probably spend most of 2014 in the VFL. Hickey will back in ASAP. Still, always a risk he'll be out for Longer at stages and his while he can score well, I don't know how low his poor games could be. Trade if he's your R1 or R2 (and read below about him at R3).
Tom Derickx - Has played a few games now which is very useful as a R3-4. I don't know how long he'll stay in the Sydney side but he's made money, which is great. Keep.
Toby Nankervis/Fraser Thurlow - Can't see either playing anytime soon. I only grabbed Thurlow as the DPP may be handy at some point. Nankervis would need Derickx to be dropped, but even then Tippett is close to returning. Thurlow is very unlikely to play in 2014 at all. Ryder is back this week and Essendon seem happy to use Carlisle and Daniher as his replacement anyway. Bellchambers is also returning to the VFL this week so he'll be back at AFL level soon. Keep both if they're your R4.
From what I've heard, both Ryder and McEvoy will be available this week.
The solutions I am going to look at below are all centered around my thinking with Shane Mumford. So that will impact only 16% of SuperCoach players. However, some of the ideas or players I suggest will apply to other trades as well.
Solution 1: Keep
This is going to be most useful if Mumford's only out for 1 week. Something that is possible with the 9 day break, but I'd suggest they'll give him 2-3 more rounds off. Keeping Mumford is really only going to work though if Currie gets back into the North Melbourne side or Derickx holds his spot. I would think after North's win that Currie may struggle to get back in this week. If Currie is not named next week I will have to consider one of the next two solutions.
Solution 2: Trade to a premium
Trade Mumford straight to a premium which means you can 'set and forget' about the rucks then. This move means you'd most likely have to forget about Mumford the year unless you maybe traded Sandilands to him down the track. Sam Jacobs is probably the best options here; he is avering 103 and has scored 110+ three times. Jacobs is also as cheap as he's going to get, at 479k, unless he puts in a few shockers. Todd Goldstein is very cheap at 530k as he's been down on his 2013 form, but he's lifted a bit the past two weeks. Personally, I really want to keep Mumford and trading him out and not getting him back is something I only wanted to do if he was missing 3-4+. I may have to consider solution 3.
Solution 3: Trade to a mid-pricer
This may sound ridiculous. This may go again the majority of SuperCoach norms/rules. But consider this an exception, particularly considering the lack of good playing rookies. This is something that I thought of last night and I would feel like a genius if it paid off. On the flip side I will feel very silly if it fails miserably. Make sure you're concentrating as you read this because it involves 3 players and two trades. Normally I wouldn't burn trades like this, but I have no other form or injury issues (at the moment) and I also had Mumford from the start, I didn't get bring him in as a corrective trade. This solution may not suit you.
Because I was one of the 7% of coaches with Mumford in from the beginning I am keen to keep him or bring him back in as I've been calling him 'my boy'. Also the fact he's averaging 150pts a game is another reason to get him back. I originally had Charlie Dixon in my forward line as a DPP to swap with Thurlow to cover any Sandilands withdrawals or anything in the ruck that may have happened, and had he not have been injured I wouldn't even be writing this post right now!
I am have considered trading Mumford to a mid-pricer, someone around 250k-350k that will score ok for the 1, 2, maybe 3 weeks that Mumford will miss. If that player can score 240-300 points during the 1-3 weeks then that would be a real win. I can hear some of you saying that it would just be easier to sideways Mumford for two weeks. Well the reason I'm targetting a mid-pricer is that I want to then make them my 3rd ruck for the remainder of the season. This would make them a solid emergency for any withdrawals or rests that may take place with Sandilands. So now I am targetting a 250k-350k player, someone scoring well and a player with decent job security.
Here's some of the rucks that fit the bill
Shaun Hampson - 370k, av. 94 - He's scored a couple of tons put out a 60 on the weekend (not the end of the world). Ivan Maric will be back eventually, pushing Hampson forward, but he should hold his spot in the side.
Trent West - 363k, av. 81 - He's been doing ok, although you're probably loathing him if you have Leuenberger, as I think he's been the reason Berger's scores have dropped. West's job security is even more set now that Leuenberger is out for 10-12. My pick of this bunch for that reason.
Hamish McIntosh - 375k, av. 82 - Relishing the number 1 ruck at Geelong now, but he has Blicavs and Simpson thereabouts as well. I wouldn't get an injury prone player in as back-up for Sandilands. While McIntosh is playing well, his price is moving too close to 400k for me to grab him as an R3.
Tom Hickey - 357k, av. 96 - It would feel strange bringing him in after rising 40k, but he is definitely the #1 ruck at Saints and he'll only miss a few games through resting or soreness while they give Longer a game here and there.
I've considered Grundy, Rowe, Stephenson, Ceglar, Witts, Sinclair, Lycett, Fitzpatrick, Spencer, Hannath and McKernan as they're all better placed price wise than the players about, but either their scoring potential leaves a lot to be desired and/or their job security isn't great. Tell me otherwise though.
Now the trick with 'Solution 3' is that to bring Mumford back in I would trade Currie to him, and hopefully over the next 1-3 weeks that Mumford is out for, Currie plays 1-3 games and makes cash. This makes a trade back to Mumford a lot easier as you should still have about 300k+ left over from trading Mumford to a mid-pricer in the first place. Or if you use that for another upgrade this week then just find the cash later on with another downgrade. For Derickx owners this will be even more simple as he's already risen in price and could continue to do so. This would leave my rucks (and possibly yours) as Sandilands, Mumford, Hickey (for e.g.) and Thurlow. Solid enough and the extra cash is always there on Hickey if I ever needed to downgrade him for some reason.
I hope this gives you some options and maybe with solution three it has thrown an extra spanner in the works and will give you something to think about over the next few days. Hit me up on twitter (@AaronSCHQ) or leave a comment below.
Last week I suggested that Higgins was scoring well enough to be suited at F6 and that Rohan or Impey should not be on your field and should be upgraded, possibly with a Thomas downgrade to free up cash. After one week that move seems a success with Impey and Rohan scoring poorly, Higgins scoring his first ton for 2014, Thomas scoring in the 50s and two options I was keen on to trade to Thomas - Crouch and Kelly - scored 80 and 70 respectively. Dylan Buckley was another I suggested but I also wrote not to play him on the field, and as I expected he didn't score great.
This week, I have decided to take a look at the rucks.
Problems
Where do I start? In a position where we only have two starters and two bench players, some teams would've had their entire rounds destroyed by the rucks. Nic Naitanui was subbed out for 27, Matthew Leuenberger subbed out for 0 with a knee injury, Dean Cox and Aaron Sandilands put out underwhelming numbers of 77 and 82 respectively. Then we had Tom Hickey and Shane Mumford as late withdrawals with minor injuries, which was no worries of course because Daniel Currie will back them up... Oh dear, then he is withdrawn as well. And the other common back-up in Tom Derickx scored 39 and was subbed out. To top all of that off, Ben McEvoy and Patrick Ryder have been absent for two weeks, Matthew Kreuzer is out for a few months and Todd Goldstein and Will Minson haven't been at their best. Please forgive me if I've missed a different ruck problem!
Where to from here?
Shane Mumford - Had minor surgery on his knee but is only listed as 1-2 weeks on the AFL injury list. Some people suggested he will only miss one because GWS have a 9 day break, but personally I don't think they'll risk him. Can keep OR trade; my focus for this article.
Nic Naitanui - Not listed on the injury list. He is terribly out of form but Simpson is quoted on the AFL website saying that he will not be dropped. Sideways trade to Jacobs if you have 40k spare.
Matthew Leuenberger - Brisbane Lions website says he is out for 10-12. Trade.
Daniel Currie - 1 more game would've seen him rise in cash. After North's win I am genuinely worried he will take some time to get back in. Will find out more over coming weeks. Hold.
Tom Hickey - I knew as a Saints fan there was always a chance as soon as Hickey was tired or sore he'd be withdrawn to give Billy Longer game time. After being at the game and watching Longer first hand, he'll probably spend most of 2014 in the VFL. Hickey will back in ASAP. Still, always a risk he'll be out for Longer at stages and his while he can score well, I don't know how low his poor games could be. Trade if he's your R1 or R2 (and read below about him at R3).
Tom Derickx - Has played a few games now which is very useful as a R3-4. I don't know how long he'll stay in the Sydney side but he's made money, which is great. Keep.
Toby Nankervis/Fraser Thurlow - Can't see either playing anytime soon. I only grabbed Thurlow as the DPP may be handy at some point. Nankervis would need Derickx to be dropped, but even then Tippett is close to returning. Thurlow is very unlikely to play in 2014 at all. Ryder is back this week and Essendon seem happy to use Carlisle and Daniher as his replacement anyway. Bellchambers is also returning to the VFL this week so he'll be back at AFL level soon. Keep both if they're your R4.
From what I've heard, both Ryder and McEvoy will be available this week.
The solutions I am going to look at below are all centered around my thinking with Shane Mumford. So that will impact only 16% of SuperCoach players. However, some of the ideas or players I suggest will apply to other trades as well.
Solution 1: Keep
This is going to be most useful if Mumford's only out for 1 week. Something that is possible with the 9 day break, but I'd suggest they'll give him 2-3 more rounds off. Keeping Mumford is really only going to work though if Currie gets back into the North Melbourne side or Derickx holds his spot. I would think after North's win that Currie may struggle to get back in this week. If Currie is not named next week I will have to consider one of the next two solutions.
Solution 2: Trade to a premium
Trade Mumford straight to a premium which means you can 'set and forget' about the rucks then. This move means you'd most likely have to forget about Mumford the year unless you maybe traded Sandilands to him down the track. Sam Jacobs is probably the best options here; he is avering 103 and has scored 110+ three times. Jacobs is also as cheap as he's going to get, at 479k, unless he puts in a few shockers. Todd Goldstein is very cheap at 530k as he's been down on his 2013 form, but he's lifted a bit the past two weeks. Personally, I really want to keep Mumford and trading him out and not getting him back is something I only wanted to do if he was missing 3-4+. I may have to consider solution 3.
Solution 3: Trade to a mid-pricer
This may sound ridiculous. This may go again the majority of SuperCoach norms/rules. But consider this an exception, particularly considering the lack of good playing rookies. This is something that I thought of last night and I would feel like a genius if it paid off. On the flip side I will feel very silly if it fails miserably. Make sure you're concentrating as you read this because it involves 3 players and two trades. Normally I wouldn't burn trades like this, but I have no other form or injury issues (at the moment) and I also had Mumford from the start, I didn't get bring him in as a corrective trade. This solution may not suit you.
Because I was one of the 7% of coaches with Mumford in from the beginning I am keen to keep him or bring him back in as I've been calling him 'my boy'. Also the fact he's averaging 150pts a game is another reason to get him back. I originally had Charlie Dixon in my forward line as a DPP to swap with Thurlow to cover any Sandilands withdrawals or anything in the ruck that may have happened, and had he not have been injured I wouldn't even be writing this post right now!
I am have considered trading Mumford to a mid-pricer, someone around 250k-350k that will score ok for the 1, 2, maybe 3 weeks that Mumford will miss. If that player can score 240-300 points during the 1-3 weeks then that would be a real win. I can hear some of you saying that it would just be easier to sideways Mumford for two weeks. Well the reason I'm targetting a mid-pricer is that I want to then make them my 3rd ruck for the remainder of the season. This would make them a solid emergency for any withdrawals or rests that may take place with Sandilands. So now I am targetting a 250k-350k player, someone scoring well and a player with decent job security.
Here's some of the rucks that fit the bill
Shaun Hampson - 370k, av. 94 - He's scored a couple of tons put out a 60 on the weekend (not the end of the world). Ivan Maric will be back eventually, pushing Hampson forward, but he should hold his spot in the side.
Trent West - 363k, av. 81 - He's been doing ok, although you're probably loathing him if you have Leuenberger, as I think he's been the reason Berger's scores have dropped. West's job security is even more set now that Leuenberger is out for 10-12. My pick of this bunch for that reason.
Hamish McIntosh - 375k, av. 82 - Relishing the number 1 ruck at Geelong now, but he has Blicavs and Simpson thereabouts as well. I wouldn't get an injury prone player in as back-up for Sandilands. While McIntosh is playing well, his price is moving too close to 400k for me to grab him as an R3.
Tom Hickey - 357k, av. 96 - It would feel strange bringing him in after rising 40k, but he is definitely the #1 ruck at Saints and he'll only miss a few games through resting or soreness while they give Longer a game here and there.
I've considered Grundy, Rowe, Stephenson, Ceglar, Witts, Sinclair, Lycett, Fitzpatrick, Spencer, Hannath and McKernan as they're all better placed price wise than the players about, but either their scoring potential leaves a lot to be desired and/or their job security isn't great. Tell me otherwise though.
Now the trick with 'Solution 3' is that to bring Mumford back in I would trade Currie to him, and hopefully over the next 1-3 weeks that Mumford is out for, Currie plays 1-3 games and makes cash. This makes a trade back to Mumford a lot easier as you should still have about 300k+ left over from trading Mumford to a mid-pricer in the first place. Or if you use that for another upgrade this week then just find the cash later on with another downgrade. For Derickx owners this will be even more simple as he's already risen in price and could continue to do so. This would leave my rucks (and possibly yours) as Sandilands, Mumford, Hickey (for e.g.) and Thurlow. Solid enough and the extra cash is always there on Hickey if I ever needed to downgrade him for some reason.
I hope this gives you some options and maybe with solution three it has thrown an extra spanner in the works and will give you something to think about over the next few days. Hit me up on twitter (@AaronSCHQ) or leave a comment below.