Good evening SuperCoaches,
Hope the summer treated you well and you are back into SuperCoach mode already. I have been tinkering with my team quite a fair bit and have it almost set, and last night the writers at SuperCoachHQ ran the SuperCoach Draft; I am happy with both of my sides now!
Today I got back into POD (Point Of Difference) player mode again. If you weren’t aware, last year I wrote about 1-3 PODs you could pick and why. Generally I tried to find someone who was starting to play well and you could get on him early, or a player who is very consistent but for whatever reason, people just don’t pick him. When I looked at how many people have selected the players I stick to anyone in under 10% of sides, but under 5% is SuperCoach gold! Particularly if they perform.
What I sat down and did tonight (which took me ages, so I hope you enjoy it!) was put down every player I selected, and:
· Their price and average when I selected them.
· Percentage of sides they were in.
· The scores they produced after selection.
· Average during the time from when I selected them until the SuperCoach Grand Final.
There’s a summary below, but make of the spread sheet what you will:
THE NUMBERS
On average the players:
· Cost $524,745.
· Would have been in only 3.48% of ALL SuperCoach sides (roughly 11k out of about 320k).
· Were averaging 102.5 pre-selection .
· Averaged 100.5 during their time after my selection.
RED: Indicates a player who’s post-selection average dropped by at least 5.
YELLOW: Indicates a player who’s average stayed within 5 points (up or down) of their pre-selection average.
GREEN: Indicates a player who’s average went at least 5 points higher than their original average.
So I would say 11/21, a touch over 50%, is a good strike rate for POD players at least keeping up, if not boost their average. The whole idea of a POD player isn’t to improve averages an cash though; it’s about finding a guy who will score well, consistently and not being a whole lot of sides. That being said, I do have to take some positive or negative responsibility if player’s averages change, especially by 5 points up or down.
POSITIVE FROM THE NEGATIVE…. (And a negative from the negative)
The averages between the 10 ‘red players’ was 105; higher than the norm out of all the players. Suggesting that it was going to be hard for these players to keep up their averages. On the flip side, it was also easier for the players with lower averages to hold their average or improve it.
The negative in the negative is that these players averaging 105 pre-selection, finishing with an average of 92. This possibly shows that picking a pod averaging around 95-100 and being under 500k could be the best way to go; likely to hold their average and may even improve it!
NOT MAKING EXCUSES
I am sure that some of the scores may have been due to injuries; I do remember Ibbotson pumping out the two 58s and then he was sent for surgery for an issue he’d had for a few weeks (tell me if that’s incorrect). However this is not something I apologise for, because that’s just the way SuperCoach rolls and I have to cop it on the chin. Some things, such as one players average like Nick Malceski’s, really affects the average of the ‘red players’, making it seem worse than it was, however there are probably some outlandish scores that skew results the other way as well. So I’m taking the numbers for what they are as they are, because they averages.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT
I noticed that a lot of the green is very close to SuperCoach finals and within SuperCoach finals, whereas the red is earlier, which means it is harder to pick a consistent POD earlier out from the finals. However this would be consistent with any player picked in SuperCoach; easier to get them in form for just a couple of weeks rather than a third of the season.
DAYNE BEAMS
I excluded Beams from these results as his score was only one game, although his one score within the whole scheme of things doesn’t skew the results much. I could include it and just say that it was a poor choice of mine. I’m also not going to hide, so for those interested it takes the post-average average to 98.5 as his total average goes in only as 60. It would increase the average player price, but average % selected would reduce.
Some of this may have been a bit too wordy, but I am a bit of a stats buff at times and there was no way I could write this up any differently. You can just read what appeals to you anyway. From tomorrow night until next Thursday I am going to select the best SuperCoach POD from each team prior to round one of 2014! Hit me up on twitter @AaronSCAdvice for any POD or general SuperCoach related question.
Cheers,
Aaron.
Hope the summer treated you well and you are back into SuperCoach mode already. I have been tinkering with my team quite a fair bit and have it almost set, and last night the writers at SuperCoachHQ ran the SuperCoach Draft; I am happy with both of my sides now!
Today I got back into POD (Point Of Difference) player mode again. If you weren’t aware, last year I wrote about 1-3 PODs you could pick and why. Generally I tried to find someone who was starting to play well and you could get on him early, or a player who is very consistent but for whatever reason, people just don’t pick him. When I looked at how many people have selected the players I stick to anyone in under 10% of sides, but under 5% is SuperCoach gold! Particularly if they perform.
What I sat down and did tonight (which took me ages, so I hope you enjoy it!) was put down every player I selected, and:
· Their price and average when I selected them.
· Percentage of sides they were in.
· The scores they produced after selection.
· Average during the time from when I selected them until the SuperCoach Grand Final.
There’s a summary below, but make of the spread sheet what you will:
THE NUMBERS
On average the players:
· Cost $524,745.
· Would have been in only 3.48% of ALL SuperCoach sides (roughly 11k out of about 320k).
· Were averaging 102.5 pre-selection .
· Averaged 100.5 during their time after my selection.
RED: Indicates a player who’s post-selection average dropped by at least 5.
YELLOW: Indicates a player who’s average stayed within 5 points (up or down) of their pre-selection average.
GREEN: Indicates a player who’s average went at least 5 points higher than their original average.
So I would say 11/21, a touch over 50%, is a good strike rate for POD players at least keeping up, if not boost their average. The whole idea of a POD player isn’t to improve averages an cash though; it’s about finding a guy who will score well, consistently and not being a whole lot of sides. That being said, I do have to take some positive or negative responsibility if player’s averages change, especially by 5 points up or down.
POSITIVE FROM THE NEGATIVE…. (And a negative from the negative)
The averages between the 10 ‘red players’ was 105; higher than the norm out of all the players. Suggesting that it was going to be hard for these players to keep up their averages. On the flip side, it was also easier for the players with lower averages to hold their average or improve it.
The negative in the negative is that these players averaging 105 pre-selection, finishing with an average of 92. This possibly shows that picking a pod averaging around 95-100 and being under 500k could be the best way to go; likely to hold their average and may even improve it!
NOT MAKING EXCUSES
I am sure that some of the scores may have been due to injuries; I do remember Ibbotson pumping out the two 58s and then he was sent for surgery for an issue he’d had for a few weeks (tell me if that’s incorrect). However this is not something I apologise for, because that’s just the way SuperCoach rolls and I have to cop it on the chin. Some things, such as one players average like Nick Malceski’s, really affects the average of the ‘red players’, making it seem worse than it was, however there are probably some outlandish scores that skew results the other way as well. So I’m taking the numbers for what they are as they are, because they averages.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT
I noticed that a lot of the green is very close to SuperCoach finals and within SuperCoach finals, whereas the red is earlier, which means it is harder to pick a consistent POD earlier out from the finals. However this would be consistent with any player picked in SuperCoach; easier to get them in form for just a couple of weeks rather than a third of the season.
DAYNE BEAMS
I excluded Beams from these results as his score was only one game, although his one score within the whole scheme of things doesn’t skew the results much. I could include it and just say that it was a poor choice of mine. I’m also not going to hide, so for those interested it takes the post-average average to 98.5 as his total average goes in only as 60. It would increase the average player price, but average % selected would reduce.
Some of this may have been a bit too wordy, but I am a bit of a stats buff at times and there was no way I could write this up any differently. You can just read what appeals to you anyway. From tomorrow night until next Thursday I am going to select the best SuperCoach POD from each team prior to round one of 2014! Hit me up on twitter @AaronSCAdvice for any POD or general SuperCoach related question.
Cheers,
Aaron.